PENGARUH SUKU BUNGA PINJAMAN, NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH, DAN KREDIT KONSUMSI TERHADAP INFLASI DI INDONESIA TAHUN 2012 – 2021

EKA FITRIYANI, . (2023) PENGARUH SUKU BUNGA PINJAMAN, NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH, DAN KREDIT KONSUMSI TERHADAP INFLASI DI INDONESIA TAHUN 2012 – 2021. Sarjana thesis, UNIVERSITAS NEGERI JAKARTA.

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Abstract

Pasca penerapan Flexible ITF, inflasi tidak dapat menyentuh target inflasi yang telah ditentukan sehingga menimbulkan penyimpangan antara target inflasi dan inflasi aktual. Bank Indonesia menetapkan jalur transmisi kebijakan moneter guna menyasar target inflasi melalui berbagai jalur, seperti jalur suku bunga, jalur nilai tukar, dan jalur kredit. Skripsi ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh suku bunga pinjaman, nilai tukar rupiah, dan kredit konsumsi terhadap inflasi di Indonesia. Metode penelitian skripsi ini adalah metode kuantitatif dengan teknik analisis VAR/VECM. Hasil penelitian menemukan bahwa (1) suku bunga pinjaman dan kredit konsumsi memberikan pengaruh signifikan terhadap inflasi pada jangka pendek; (2) suku bunga pinjaman dan nilai tukar rupiah memberikan pengaruh signifikan terhadap inflasi pada jangka panjang; (3) inflasi akan merespon beragam atas guncangan dari suku bunga pinjaman, nilai tukar rupiah, dan kredit konsumsi; dan (4) variasi perubahan inflasi dapat dijelaskan secara efektif oleh perubahan suku bunga pinjaman dan kredit konsumsi. Implikasi dari hasil penelitian adalah peningkatan suku bunga acuan tidak dapat dilakukan secara terus menerus tetapi harus mempertimbangkan keadaan ekonomi dan shocks yang akan terjadi, permintaan dan penawaran valas tetap harus dipelihara Bank Indonesia agar tidak menimbulkan volatilitas nilai tukar, dan penetapan kebijakan restrukturisasi kredit dapat mengurangi dampak risiko kredit. After the implementation of Flexible ITF, inflation could not reach the predetermined inflation target, causing deviations between the target and actual inflation. Bank Indonesia sets monetary policy transmission channels to target inflation through various channels, such as the interest rate channel, the exchange rate channel, and the credit channel. This thesis aims to determine the effect of loan interest rates, exchange rates, and consumer credit on inflation in Indonesia. The research method of this thesis is a quantitative method with VAR/VECM analysis techniques. The results found that (1) loan interest rates and consumer credit have a significant effect on inflation in the short term; (2) loan interest rates and rupiah exchange rates have a significant effect on inflation in the long term; (3) inflation will respond differently to shocks from loan interest rates, rupiah exchange rates, and consumer credit; and (4) variations in inflation changes can be effectively explained by changes in loan interest rates and consumer credit. The implications of the research results are that the increase in the benchmark interest rate cannot be done continuously but must consider the state of the economy and shocks that will occur, the demand and supply of foreign exchange must still be maintained by Bank Indonesia so as not to cause exchange rate volatility, and the establishment of credit restructuring policies can reduce the impact of credit risk.

Item Type:	Thesis (Sarjana)
Additional Information:	1) Dicky Iranto, SE, M.SE. ; 2) Dr. Karuniana Dianta A. S, S.IP., M.E.
Subjects:	Ilmu Sosial > Teori Ekonomi
Divisions:	FE > S1 Pendidikan Ekonomi
Depositing User:	Users 18083 not found.
Date Deposited:	15 May 2023 01:53
Last Modified:	15 May 2023 01:53
URI:	http://repository.unj.ac.id/id/eprint/38827

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