IMPLEMENTASI TEKNIK DEKOMPOSISI TREND DALAM MENGANALISIS FLUKTUASI PERKEMBANGAN JUMLAH KENDARAAN BERMOTOR DI DAERAH KHUSUS IBU KOTA JAKARTA

RICKY ANDREAS, . (2026) IMPLEMENTASI TEKNIK DEKOMPOSISI TREND DALAM MENGANALISIS FLUKTUASI PERKEMBANGAN JUMLAH KENDARAAN BERMOTOR DI DAERAH KHUSUS IBU KOTA JAKARTA. Sarjana thesis, UNIVERSITAS NEGERI JAKARTA.

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Abstract

Peningkatan jumlah kendaraan bermotor di Provinsi DKI Jakarta dari ta-hun ke tahun memerlukan metode analisis yang mampu mengidentifika-si pola perkembangan data secara sistematis. Penelitian ini bertujuan un-tuk menganalisis fluktuasi perkembangan jumlah kendaraan bermotor di Provinsi DKI Jakarta menggunakan metode dekomposisi aditif. Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan data sekunder jumlah kenda-raan bermotor periode 2015–2022 yang diperoleh dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). Data tahunan diinterpolasi menjadi data bulanan menggunakan me-tode growth rate sebelum dianalisis dengan metode dekomposisi aditif me-lalui perhitungan Moving Average, komponen tren, musiman, siklus, dan acak. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa seluruh jenis kendaraan ber-motor memiliki tren yang meningkat selama periode pengamatan. Sepeda motor memiliki laju pertumbuhan tertinggi sebesar 657.179,16 unit per ta-hun, sedangkan bus memiliki laju pertumbuhan terendah sebesar 1.345,48 unit per tahun. Komponen musiman dan siklus menunjukkan adanya fluk-tuasi positif maupun negatif pada setiap jenis kendaraan, sedangkan kom-ponen acak bernilai nol sehingga variasi data telah dapat dijelaskan oleh komponen tren, musiman, dan siklus. Dengan demikian, metode dekom-posisi aditif yang didukung interpolasi menggunakan metode growth rate mampu menggambarkan pola perkembangan jumlah kendaraan bermotor di Provinsi DKI Jakarta secara sistematis.***** The increasing number of motor vehicles in the Special Capital Region of Jakarta (DKI Jakarta) requires an analytical method capable of systematica-lly identifying patterns in vehicle development. This study aims to analyze the fluctuations in the development of motor vehicles in DKI Jakarta using the additive decomposition method. A quantitative approach was emplo-yed using secondary data on the number of motor vehicles for the period 2015–2022 obtained from Statistics Indonesia (BPS). Since the available da-ta were annual, they were interpolated into monthly data using the growth rate method before being analyzed through additive decomposition, which included the calculation of the Moving Average, trend, seasonal, cyclical, and irregular components. The results indicate that all categories of motor vehicles exhibited an increasing trend throughout the observation period. Motorcycles recorded the highest annual growth rate of 657,179.16 units, while buses had the lowest annual growth rate of 1,345.48 units. The sea-sonal and cyclical components showed both positive and negative fluctua-tions for each vehicle category, whereas the irregular component was zero, indicating that the variation in the data was fully explained by the trend, seasonal, and cyclical components. Therefore, the additive decomposition method supported by growth rate interpolation is capable of systematically describing the development pattern of motor vehicles in DKI Jakarta.

Item Type:	Thesis (Sarjana)
Additional Information:	1). Dr. Eti Dwi Wiraningsih, S.Pd., M.Si. ; 2). Drs. Sudarwanto, M.Si., DEA
Subjects:	Sains > Matematika
Divisions:	FMIPA > S1 Matematika
Depositing User:	Users 36533 not found.
Date Deposited:	18 Aug 2026 03:23
Last Modified:	18 Aug 2026 03:23
URI:	http://repository.unj.ac.id/id/eprint/71358

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