PENGARUH NILAI TUKAR, INFLASI, DAN SUKU BUNGA TERHADAP EKSPOR NONMIGAS DI INDONESIA TAHUN 2005 - 2024

HERMALIA PUTRI, . (2026) PENGARUH NILAI TUKAR, INFLASI, DAN SUKU BUNGA TERHADAP EKSPOR NONMIGAS DI INDONESIA TAHUN 2005 - 2024. Sarjana thesis, UNIVERSITAS NEGERI JAKARTA.

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Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh nilai tukar (kurs), inflasi, dan suku bunga terhadap ekspor non-migas di Indonesia dalam jangka pendek dan jangka panjang selama periode 2005 hingga 2024. Sektor ekspor non-migas merupakan pilar penting dalam menjaga stabilitas neraca perdagangan dan cadangan devisa nasional. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode penelitian Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) dengan data stasioner pada tingkat second difference. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa (1) nilai tukar berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap ekspor nonmigas di Indonesia dalam jangka panjang, dan tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap ekspor nonmigas di Indonesia dalam jangka pendek; (2) inflasi berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap ekspor nonmigas di Indonesia dalam jangka panjang, dan tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap ekspor nonmigas di Indonesia dalam jangka pendek; (3) suku bunga berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap ekspor nonmigas di Indonesia dalam jangka panjang dengan standar kesalahan 10%, dan tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap ekspor nonmigas di Indonesia dalam jangka pendek. Implikasi dari penelitian adalah stabilitas nilai tukar dalam jangka panjang perlu dijaga. Stabilitas nilai tukar dapat meningkatkan daya saing produk ekspor Indonesia di pasar internasional. Pengendalian inflasi perlu dipastikan stabil dan terkendali untuk menjaga daya saing ekspor. Selain itu, kebijakan suku bunga yang diterapkan sebaiknya lebih difokuskan pada stabilitas makroekonomi, seperti pengendalian inflasi dan stabilitas sistem keuangan, daripada secara langsung menargetkan peningkatan ekspor. **** This study aims to analyze the effect of exchange rates, inflation, and interest rates on non-oil and gas exports in Indonesia in the short and long term during the period 2005 to 2024. The non-oil and gas export sector is an important pillar in maintaining the stability of the trade balance and national foreign exchange reserves. This study uses the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) research method with stationary data at the second difference level. The results of the study indicate that (1) the exchange rate has a negative and significant effect on non-oil and gas exports in Indonesia in the long term, and does not significantly affect non-oil and gas exports in Indonesia in the short term; (2) inflation has a negative and significant effect on non-oil and gas exports in Indonesia in the long term, and does not significantly affect non-oil and gas exports in Indonesia in the short term; (3) interest rates have a positive and significant effect on non-oil and gas exports in Indonesia in the long term with a standard error of 10%, and does not significantly affect non- oil and gas exports in Indonesia in the short term. The implication of the study is that long-term exchange rate stability needs to be maintained. Exchange rate stability can increase the competitiveness of Indonesian export products in the international market. Inflation control must be ensured to be stable and manageable to maintain export competitiveness. Furthermore, the interest rate policy implemented should focus more on macroeconomic stability, such as controlling inflation and financial system stability, rather than directly targeting export growth.

Item Type:	Thesis (Sarjana)
Additional Information:	1). Prof. Dr. Saparuddin M, M.Si.; 2). Prof. Dr. Suparno, S.Pd., M.Pd.
Subjects:	Ilmu Sosial > Teori Ekonomi Ilmu Sosial > Sejarah Ekonomi, Kondisi Ekonomi Ilmu Sosial > Perdagangan, e-commerce
Divisions:	FE > S1 Pendidikan Ekonomi
Depositing User:	Hermalia Putri .
Date Deposited:	19 Aug 2026 02:17
Last Modified:	19 Aug 2026 02:17
URI:	http://repository.unj.ac.id/id/eprint/72104

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