NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH, HARGA KOPI INTERNASIONAL, DAN PDB SEBAGAI DETERMINAN VOULUME EKSPOR KOPI INDONESIA KE AMERIKA SERIKAT (2014-2025)

AFIFAHAYATI, . (2026) NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH, HARGA KOPI INTERNASIONAL, DAN PDB SEBAGAI DETERMINAN VOULUME EKSPOR KOPI INDONESIA KE AMERIKA SERIKAT (2014-2025). Sarjana thesis, UNIVERSITAS NEGERI JAKARTA.

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Abstract

AFIFAHAYATI, Pengaruh Nilai Tukar Rupiah, Harga Kopi Internasional, dan PDB sebagai Determinan Volume Ekspor Kopi Indonesia ke Amerika Serikat. Skripsi. Jakarta. Program Studi Pendidikan Ekonomi. Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis. Universitas Negeri Jakarta. 2026. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh nilai tukar riil rupiah, harga kopi internasional dan PDB Amerika Serikat terhadap Volume Ekspor Kopi Indonesia ke Amerika Serikat. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan metode analisis regresi linear berganda. Data sekunder diperoleh dari Bank Indonesia, International Coffee Organization (ICO), Federal Reserve Economic Data of St. Louis (FRED), dan International Trade Centre (ITC), sehingga diperoleh 48 observasi. Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa nilai tukar rupiah tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap volume ekspor kopi Indonesia ke Amerika Serikat sehingga respons volume ekspor terhadap fluktuasi nilai tukar cenderung bersifat jangka panjang. Harga Kopi Internasional berpengaruh positif dan signifikan dimana kenaikan harga mendorong produsen dan eksportir untuk meningkatkan volume penjualan. Sementara itu, PDB Amerika Serikat berpengaruh negatf dan signifikan yang diduga disebabkan oleh dominasi struktural negara pemasok kopi premium. Temuan ini diharapkan dapat menjadi bahan pertimbangan bagi pemerintah dan pelaku usaha dalam merumuskan strategi peningkatan daya saing ekspor kopi Indonesia ke pasar Amerika Serikat. Kata Kunci: nilai tukar riil, harga kopi internasional, Produk Domestik Bruto, volume ekspor, kopi, Amerika Serikat ***** AFIFAHAYATI. The Indonesia Rupiah Exchange Rate, International Coffee Prices, GDP as Determinants of Indonesian Coffee Export Volume To The United States (2014-2025). Undergraduate Thesis. Jakarta: Department of Economic Education, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Negeri Jakarta. 2026. This study aims to analyze the effect of the real rupiah exchange rate, international coffee prices, and the United States Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Indonesia's coffee export volume to the United States. This research employed a quantitative approach using multiple linear regression analysis. Secondary data were obtained from Bank Indonesia, the International Coffee Organization (ICO), the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) of St. Louis, and the International Trade Centre (ITC), resulting in a total of 48 observations. The findings indicate that the real rupiah exchange rate has no significant effect on Indonesia's coffee export volume to the United States, suggesting that the export volume responds to exchange rate fluctuations only in the long run. International coffee prices have a positive and significant effect, indicating that higher coffee prices encourage producers and exporters to increase export volumes. Meanwhile, the United States Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has a negative and significant effect, which is presumed to be attributable to the structural dominance of premium coffee-exporting countries in the U.S. market. These findings are expected to provide valuable insights for the government and business actors in formulating strategies to enhance the competitiveness of Indonesian coffee exports in the United States market. Keywords: real exchange rate, international coffee prices, Gross Domestic Product, export volume, coffee, United States.

Item Type:	Thesis (Sarjana)
Additional Information:	1). Dr. Dicky Iranto, S.E., M.SE. ; 2). Riswandi, M.Pd.E.
Subjects:	Ilmu Sosial > Teori Ekonomi Ilmu Sosial > Sejarah Ekonomi, Kondisi Ekonomi Ilmu Sosial > Perdagangan, e-commerce
Divisions:	FE > S1 Pendidikan Ekonomi
Depositing User:	Afifahayati .
Date Deposited:	20 Aug 2026 07:07
Last Modified:	20 Aug 2026 07:07
URI:	http://repository.unj.ac.id/id/eprint/72192

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