PERBANDINGAN METODE SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (SARIMA) SPEKTRAL DAN DEKOMPOSISI MULTIPLIKATIF DALAM PERAMALAN HARGA CABAI RAWIT MERAH DI JAWA TIMUR

REZA FANYSAH, . (2026) PERBANDINGAN METODE SEASONAL AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (SARIMA) SPEKTRAL DAN DEKOMPOSISI MULTIPLIKATIF DALAM PERAMALAN HARGA CABAI RAWIT MERAH DI JAWA TIMUR. Sarjana thesis, UNIVERSITAS NEGERI JAKARTA.

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Abstract

ABSTRAK REZA FANYSAH. Perbandingan Metode Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Spektral dan Dekomposisi Multiplikatif dalam Peramalan Harga Cabai Rawit Merah di Jawa Timur. Skripsi, Program Studi Matematika, Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, Universitas Negeri Jakarta. Juni 2026. Penelitian ini bertujuan membandingkan metode SARIMA Spektral dan Dekomposisi Multiplikatif dalam meramalkan harga cabai rawit merah di Jawa Timur serta menentukan metode dengan tingkat akurasi terbaik. Data yang digunakan merupakan data bulanan harga cabai rawit merah periode November 2017–Februari 2026 yang diperoleh dari PIHPS Nasional. Analisis spektral menunjukkan periode musiman selama 11 bulan dan menghasilkan model terbaik SARIMA(1,0,2)(1,0,2)₁₁ dengan nilai MAPE sebesar 14,96%. Sementara itu, metode Dekomposisi Multiplikatif menghasilkan nilai MAPE sebesar 17,86%. Berdasarkan nilai MAPE, metode SARIMA Spektral memiliki tingkat kesalahan yang lebih rendah sehingga menjadi metode terbaik dalam meramalkan harga cabai rawit merah di Jawa Timur. Kata kunci: Dekomposisi Multiplikatif, Harga Cabai Rawit Merah, MAPE, Peramalan, SARIMA Spektral. ***** ABSTRACT REZA FANYSAH. Comparison of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) Spectral and Multiplicative Decomposition Methods for Forecasting Red Chili Pepper Prices in East Java. Undergraduate Thesis, Mathematics Study Program, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Universitas Negeri Jakarta. June 2026. This study aims to compare the SARIMA Spectral and Multiplicative Decomposition methods for forecasting red chili pepper prices in East Java and to determine the method with the best forecasting accuracy. The data consist of monthly red chili pepper prices from November 2017 to February 2026 obtained from PIHPS Nasional. Spectral analysis identified an 11-month seasonal period and produced the best model, SARIMA(1,0,2)(1,0,2)₁₁, with a MAPE value of 14.96%. Meanwhile, the Multiplicative Decomposition method resulted in a MAPE value of 17.86%. Based on the MAPE value, the SARIMA Spectral method produced a lower forecasting error and was therefore the best method for forecasting red chili pepper prices in East Java. Keywords: Forecasting, MAPE, Multiplicative Decomposition, Red Chili Pepper Price, SARIMA Spectral.

Item Type:	Thesis (Sarjana)
Additional Information:	1) Dr.Vera Maya Santi,S.Si.,M.Si. ; 2) Dr.Eti Dwi Wiraningsih,S.Pd.,M.Si.
Subjects:	Sains > Sains, Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Sains > Matematika Sains > Statistika
Divisions:	FMIPA > S1 Matematika
Depositing User:	Reza Fanysah .
Date Deposited:	24 Aug 2026 06:53
Last Modified:	24 Aug 2026 06:53
URI:	http://repository.unj.ac.id/id/eprint/73059

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