ANALISIS KERENTANAN SOSIAL DAERAH RAWAN BANJIR ROB BERBASIS VULNERABILITY SCOPING DIAGRAM (STUDI KASUS DI KECAMATAN PENJARINGAN JAKARTA UTARA)

Imam Hidayat, . (2026) ANALISIS KERENTANAN SOSIAL DAERAH RAWAN BANJIR ROB BERBASIS VULNERABILITY SCOPING DIAGRAM (STUDI KASUS DI KECAMATAN PENJARINGAN JAKARTA UTARA). Magister thesis, UNIVERSITAS NEGERI JAKARTA.

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Abstract

Kecamatan Penjaringan, Jakarta Utara, merupakan kawasan pesisir rawan banjir rob yang menghadapi tekanan kerentanan sosial akibat interaksi faktor demografi, penurunan muka tanah, dinamika pesisir, serta kapasitas ketahanan daerah. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis proyeksi kerentanan sosial masyarakat periode 2020–2030, mengidentifikasi pengaruh keterpaparan, sensitivitas, dan ketahanan daerah, serta menentukan intervensi yang paling efektif dalam menekan dan menunda peningkatan kerentanan. Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan pemodelan proyeksi berbasis Vulnerability Scop-ing Diagram. Data sekunder diperoleh dari BPS, BNPB, BPBD DKI Jakarta, serta sumber resmi terkait kependudukan, lingkungan pesisir, dan Indeks Ketahanan Daerah (IKD). Empat simulasi intervensi mencakup pengendalian pertumbuhan penduduk, pengurangan penurunan muka tanah, peningkatan IKD, dan intervensi gabungan. Hasil menunjukkan bahwa nilai kerentanan kondisi eksisting mencapai 81,91 pada 2030, sedangkan masing-masing intervensi menghasilkan nilai kerentanan 80,02; 80,61; 67,57; dan 63,32. Dengan nilai kritis 53,60 sebagai batas operasional daya dukung maksimum masyarakat, kondisi eksisting, intervensi pengendalian pertumbuhan penduduk, dan pengurangan penurunan muka tanah mulai melampaui batas pada 2027, peningkatan IKD pada 2028, sedangkan intervensi gabungan pada 2029. Intervensi gabungan memberikan hasil terbaik dengan reduksi kerentanan sebesar 22,70% dan penundaan kondisi kritis selama dua tahun. Temuan ini menegaskan bahwa pengurangan kerentanan sosial lebih efektif melalui kebijakan multidimensi yang mengintegrasikan pengendalian sensitivitas, pengurangan keterpaparan, dan penguatan kapasitas daerah. Penelitian lanjutan disarankan mengembangkan aspek mobilitas penduduk, perubahan tata ruang, dan variasi kebijakan adaptasi*****The Penjaringan Subdistrict in North Jakarta is a coastal area prone to tidal flooding that faces social vulnerability pressures resulting from the inter-play of demographic factors, land subsidence, coastal dynamics, and local resilience capacity. This study aims to analyze projections of community social vulnerability for the 2020–2030 period, identify the effects of exposure, sensitivity, and local resilience, and determine the most effective interventions to mitigate and delay the increase in vulnerability. The study employs a quantitative approach using projection modeling based on the Vulnerability Scoping Diagram. Secondary data were obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB), the Jakarta Provincial Disaster Management Agency (BPBD DKI Jakarta), and official sources related to population, coastal environments, and the Regional Resilience Index (IKD). Four intervention simulations included population growth control, reduction of land subsidence, improvement of the IKD, and a combined intervention. The study found that the vulnerability value under the existing conditions will reach 81.91 by 2030, while each intervention results in vulnerability values of 80.02, 80.61, 67.57, and 63.32, respectively. With a critical value of 53.60 as the operational threshold for the community’s maximum carrying capacity, the existing conditions, population growth control interventions, and measures to reduce land subsidence will begin to exceed this threshold in 2027; the IKD will improve in 2028, while combined interventions will take effect in 2029. Combined interventions yield the best results, with a 22.70% reduction in vulnerability and a two-year delay in reaching critical conditions. These findings confirm that reducing social vulnerability is more effective through multidimensional policies that integrate sensitivity control, exposure reduction, and regional capacity building. Further research is recommended to explore aspects of population mobility, land-use changes, and variations in adaptation policies.

Item Type:	Thesis (Magister)
Additional Information:	1). Prof. Dr. Henita Rahmayanti, M.Si 2). Dr. Dian Alfia Purwandari, M.Si
Subjects:	Ilmu Sosial > Demografi, Penduduk, Ilmu Kependudukan Sains > Sains, Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam Manajemen > Manajemen Sumber Daya Manusia Sains > Statistika
Divisions:	PASCASARJANA > S2 Manajemen Lingkungan
Depositing User:	Imam Hidayat .
Date Deposited:	13 Aug 2026 03:57
Last Modified:	13 Aug 2026 03:57
URI:	http://repository.unj.ac.id/id/eprint/70408

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